SAN JOSE, Costa Rica – Costa Rican voters appear likely to elect the country's first female president, a protege of Nobel laureate Oscar Arias who holds a nearly 20-point lead over two male rivals ahead of Sunday's balloting.
Laura Chinchilla's election would mark another political triumph in the storied career of outgoing President Arias, who has been regularly called on to put out Central America's political fires.
Chinchilla was Arias' vice president before launching her campaign. If victorious, she has pledged to continue Aria's moderate free-market policies in what is considered the most politically stable country in the region.
Costa Rica "got on the right path four years ago and now is the moment to stay the course," Chinchilla said during a recent debate. "It's not the moment for some change that will take us down a road we don't know."
Arias, 69, has suffered health problems and has said little about his plans after the presidency. Critics worry he will try to govern behind the scenes. One of her rivals' campaign ads depicts Chinchilla as a marionette, spouting answers to tough questions while a puppeteer resembling Arias pulls her strings.
Chinchilla, the 50-year-old mother of a teenage boy, is a social conservative who opposes abortion and gay marriage. She says she will leave her own, unique mark on history if elected.
"For me, as a woman, it is a point of pride and satisfaction that Costa Rica is recognizing my leadership abilities," she said. "That speaks well of Costa Rica as far as overcoming gender distinctions and instead putting stock in one's abilities for the overall good of our country."
Her gender and political ties to Arias mean she appeals both to Costa Ricans seeking a fresh face in politics and to those reluctant to risk shaking up the status quo: relatively high salaries, the longest life expectancy in Latin America, a thriving ecotourism industry and a population that is almost completely literate.
Arias won the Nobel Peace Prize during his first presidential term in 1987 for working to end civil wars in several Central American countries.
After returning to the presidency 20 years later, he was called in to mediate another regional crisis in 2009: a coup that ousted Honduran President Manuel Zelaya.
Arias tried to negotiate Zelaya's return to office. While the coup-installed government refused, his mediation helped calm the turmoil as the country elected a new president.
At home, Arias coaxed Costa Ricans into joining the Central American Free Trade Agreement with the United States — overcoming strong resistance from many who did not want the state-run telecommunications company opened to competition. He also pursued trade pacts with the European Union and China.
At the same time, he launched an initiative to convert Costa Rica into a carbon-neutral nation by 2021, though activists complain that Arias has catered to big developers to boost the economy at the cost of the environment. They point to his proposal to shrink Las Baulas Marine Park and his decision to lift a moratorium on mining.
Many conservationists back Otton Solis of the left-leaning Citizens' Action Party, who they believe will reverse some of Arias' policies. Solis narrowly lost the 2006 presidential election to Arias.
Otto Guevara of the Libertarian Movement Party has emerged as Chinchilla's most serious challenger. He wants to deepen free-market policies by lowering taxes, dismantling remaining monopolies and adopting the U.S. dollar as the country's currency.
Both men portray Arias' centrist National Liberation Party as stagnant and ridden with old-school Latin American cronyism.
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